《能源化工》日报-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The short - term inventory accumulation trend continues. Import and domestic logistics jointly drive a significant increase in port inventory. Although downstream operations are at a high level, profit contraction intensifies the pressure of hidden inventory. If Iranian supply is interrupted due to geopolitical conflicts, it may relieve the supply - demand contradiction at ports. Short - term strategy is to wait and see, while long - term Iranian shutdown may boost sentiment [2]. Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices rose, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties. The potential supply interruption risk has pushed up the risk premium, supporting high oil prices. The US industry data shows a sharp drop in crude oil inventory last week. Geopolitical tensions extend the market uncertainty period, supporting oil prices above the pre - conflict level. Short - term, a bullish approach is recommended [20]. Urea - The domestic urea market remains in a loose supply pattern. The key marginal change is the relaxation of export policies, which opens an international channel for excess production capacity. Short - term trading logic should focus on multiple factors such as the operation status of Iranian urea export ports and international buyer inquiries [28]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price continues to decline from a high level. On the styrene side, supply increases as some petrochemical plants restart. Downstream 3S profits improve and replenishment is fair, leading to a slight decline in port inventory. In the short - term, it fluctuates sharply, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the marginal pressure on supply - demand after the restart of styrene plants [34]. Caustic Soda - Recently, the operation of caustic soda has declined, but cost reduction leads to partial resumption of production, which has limited impact. Demand from the alumina end is weakening, and non - aluminum demand is sluggish. There is short - term supply - demand pressure in inventory, and further capacity pressure risk may occur after the return of maintenance devices [38]. PVC - In the short - term, PVC shows a volatile operation. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the decline in the domestic real estate sector. The supply side is expected to face greater pressure in the future. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling approach [38]. Polyester Industry Chain - Oil prices are under pressure to rise further due to weak supply - demand expectations. PX is expected to be strong in the short - term. PTA is also expected to be supported in the short - term. Ethylene glycol is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand but strong price support. Bottle - chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees may rebound [42]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased by 0.37%. The Taicang basis increased by 25.51%. Regional spreads such as Taicang - Inner Mongolia and Taicang - Luoyang also changed [2]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 2.33%, port inventory by 12.22%, and social inventory by 8.37% [2]. - Operation Rate: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operation rates increased, and some downstream operation rates such as acetic acid and MTBE also increased [2]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased, while EFS increased [20]. - Market Logic: Geopolitical uncertainties, especially the conflict between Iran and Israel, drive up oil prices. US industry data shows a sharp drop in crude oil inventory [20]. Urea - Futures and Spot: Futures contract prices and spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [23][24][27]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days data changed. The export policy was relaxed [27][28]. Styrene - Upstream: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. The pure benzene market price continued to decline [31][34]. - Spot and Futures: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased. The supply side increased, and downstream inventory decreased slightly [32][34]. Caustic Soda and PVC - Caustic Soda: Prices, overseas quotes, and export profits changed. Operation rates decreased, and inventory showed different trends in different regions [38]. - PVC: Spot and futures prices, overseas quotes, and export profits changed. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak [38]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream and Downstream Prices: Prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX, and downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [42]. - Operation Rates and Cash Flows: Operation rates of various polyester products and cash flows also changed. Different products in the industry chain have different supply - demand and price trends [42].