原木期货日报-20250618

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for logs has entered the off - season, and the winter shipments from New Zealand are expected to decrease seasonally. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand [2]. - The 07 contract will enter the delivery month and face its first delivery. There are large differences in the market under the logic of subsequent delivery costs [2]. - The main log contract reached around 805 yuan yesterday, and there is limited upward space at the current position. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on a single - sided basis or short the far - month contracts on rallies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On June 17, the prices of log 2507, log 2509, and log 2511 contracts increased by 1 yuan, 1 yuan, and 1.5 yuan respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.13%, 0.12%, and 0.19%. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of each contract also changed to varying degrees [1]. - The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce were also stable [1]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On June 17, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.181, with a decrease of 0.003 compared to the previous day, and the import theoretical cost was 777.27 yuan, a decrease of 0.39 yuan [1]. Supply: Monthly - In May, the port shipping volume was 195.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 22.8 million cubic meters or 13.20% compared to April. The number of departing ships was 58, a decrease of 5 or - 7.94% [1]. Inventory: Major Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 345 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6 million cubic meters [2]. Demand - As of June 13, the daily average log outbound volume was 5.98 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 million cubic meters, indicating a weakening demand [2].