广发期货日评-20250618

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships across different sectors. Short - term market movements are often influenced by news and events, while long - term trends depend on fundamental factors [2][4]. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - The index has stable lower support but faces pressure to break through the upper level. Tariff negotiations are ongoing, causing short - term fluctuations due to news. High dividends support the market, resulting in narrow - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for now and try to sell out - of - the - money put options with a strike price of 5800 in July to earn premiums [2]. Treasury Bonds - With loose capital and strong market expectations for the central bank to restart bond purchases, the overall Treasury bond futures are rising, with the short - end being stronger. Attention should be paid to the content of the Lujiazui Forum. If expected policies are implemented, it may drive the curve to steepen bullishly. In the unilateral strategy, Treasury bond futures can be appropriately allocated with long positions on dips [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may approach the previous high of around $3450 (¥800) if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates again. If the safe - haven sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, out - of - the - money call options on gold can be sold at high prices. Silver still has upward potential under inflation expectations influenced by the Middle East situation on energy prices [2]. Shipping Index - The EC2508 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating narrowly in the range of 1900 - 2200. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now [2]. Steel - For industrial steel, demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the decline in hot metal production has narrowed, and the arrival volume has reached a high level. It can be shorted on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. For coking coal, the market auction failure rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from a high level, and the spot market is weakly stable with improved trading and better expectations. For coke, the third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further cuts, with the price approaching the bottom. Arbitrage strategies such as going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper shows weak momentum and narrow - range oscillations. Zinc's price center has moved down, and inventory depletion provides support. Nickel's sentiment is low, and the price continues to test lower levels, with little change in fundamentals. Stainless steel's price is in a downward trend, and its fundamentals are weak. For tin, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm, and a short - selling strategy from high levels can be adopted based on inventory and import data inflection points [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For oil, due to high geopolitical uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. WTI's upper resistance has expanded to [73, 74], and Brent's upper - end pressure is in [74, 75], while SC's pressure is in [540, 550]. For urea, there is short - term technical correction pressure, and the upside space needs to be verified by news. For PX, short - term support is strong, and short - long positions can be taken, while considering narrowing the PX - SC spread. For PTA, it is slightly bullish in a narrow - range oscillation, and short - long positions are recommended, along with arbitrage strategies. For PF, short - term processing fees have slightly recovered but with limited momentum. For bottle chips, processing fees may bottom - out and rebound during the peak demand season. For ethylene glycol, the shutdown of Iranian plants has boosted the price, and short - term attention should be paid to the 4450 pressure. For styrene, short - term energy disturbances cause oscillating and repeating movements, and mid - term short - selling opportunities based on raw material resonance should be sought. For caustic soda, the alumina purchase price has continuously declined, and the market is looking for a bottom. For PVC, short - term contradictions are not intensified, and it is in a low - level consolidation phase. For synthetic rubber, it has stopped falling and rebounded due to international geopolitical conflicts. For LLDPE, the spot price has risen slightly with neutral trading. For PP, it is in a weak supply - demand situation and oscillates weakly. For methanol, inventory continues to accumulate, and the basis is stable [2][4]. Agricultural Products - For grains and oilseeds, the new US soybean crop is in good condition, and the market oscillates. For hogs, due to weakening demand in hot weather, the price oscillates slightly. For corn, it lacks the power to continue rising and oscillates at a high level. For palm oil, it is expected to optimistically hit 8500 points in the short term. For sugar, overseas supply is expected to be loose, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended. For cotton, the downstream market is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable. For eggs, the spot market is weak, with a bottom - rebound and then short - selling trend. For apples, trading is weak. For dates, the market price is weakly stable. For peanuts, the market price is high. For soda ash, the oversupply logic persists, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, the spot market sales have improved, and the short - term market has support. For rubber, the continuous rebound of crude oil has driven up the rubber price. For industrial silicon, the futures are oscillating in a low - level range [2][3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, futures have declined with reduced positions. For lithium, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].