焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-18）-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will remain weak in the short term. Coking coal prices are likely to be weak, while coke is expected to run weakly and stably [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Some coal mines in production areas have halted operations, leading to a slight tightening of overall supply. Downstream procurement is cautious, with more declines than increases in online transaction prices. After previous price drops, the decline has significantly narrowed, and the probability of further sharp drops is low. In the short term, coal prices will run weakly and stably [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 150.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [2]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main coking coal position is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - Expectation: After three consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, coking enterprise profits have slightly shrunk, and they mainly consume inventory, reducing the demand for raw coal. Coupled with the off - season in the finished product market and the decline in hot metal production, the rigid demand for the coking coal market is under pressure. It is expected that coking coal prices will be weak in the short term [2]. - Positive Factors: An increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - Negative Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Fundamentals: After three rounds of coke price cuts, the profitability of coking enterprises has declined. Some coking enterprises have actively reduced production due to losses and inventory pressure. However, the market is观望, steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is generally low, and some coking enterprises still have inventory accumulation. They mainly focus on active sales [6]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1320, with a basis of - 45.5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons. The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [6]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - Main Position: The main coke position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Recently, due to stricter environmental inspections, the operating rate of coking enterprises has been restricted. However, considering the traditional off - season in the steel market, the terminal demand expectation remains weak, and steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is still cautious. Some steel mills continue to adopt a strategy of controlled procurement, and the overall market supply is still abundant. It is expected that coke will continue to run weakly and stably in the short term [6]. - Positive Factors: An increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Price - Coking Coal: On June 17th (17:30), the port spot prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and regions are provided, with prices ranging from 668 to 1250 [9]. - Coke: On June 17th (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from different ports and origins have declined, with a decrease of 10 for some prices [10]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. Other Indicators - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74%, unchanged from last week [35]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39].