大越期货沥青期货早报-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply Side: In June 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate increased by 0.599 percentage points week - on - week, and the sample enterprise output increased by 1.86% week - on - week. Refinery production increases have raised supply pressure, but it is expected to decrease next week [8]. - Demand Side: The overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher. The waterproofing membrane开工率 decreased by 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and is also lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 602.45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.00%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 711.6571 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.92%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support weakens in the short term. The asphalt 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3614 - 3674 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Bearish. Supply pressure is high, demand recovery is weak, and cost support may weaken [8][9]. - Basis: On June 17, the Shandong spot price was 3800 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis was 156 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1.353 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%; factory inventory was 792,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.25%. Social inventory is accumulating, while factory and port inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20. Bullish [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions. Bullish [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Price Trends: The prices of most asphalt contracts showed a downward trend, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.61% [18]. - Basis and Spread Analysis: The report provides the basis trends of Shandong and East China, as well as the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12), asphalt - crude oil price trends, crude oil cracking spreads, and asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trends [20][23][26]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Regional Market Prices: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China and Shandong [37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [40][43]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Output: Weekly and monthly output trends are presented, and the planned production in June 2025 increased [8][52]. - Inventory: It covers various types of inventory, including exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [67][71][48]. - Other Supply Indicators: Such as shipping volume, refinery maintenance loss, and开工率 [46][64][61]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Downstream Demand: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, and downstream demand in areas such as highway construction and machinery [83][86][89]. - Asphalt开工率: The开工率 of different types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic, building, and modified asphalt, is analyzed [98][101]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025 is provided, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [109].