大越期货纯碱早报-20250618

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. The supply has declined from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session is 1159 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1210 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 51 yuan, with a 41.67% increase compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry output is at a historically high level. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - The maintenance of soda ash plants is gradually resuming, and the supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.01 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.58 tons, and the production has declined from a historical high. The weekly industry operating rate is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [2][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale production capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production - launch of 100 tons [20]. 3.3.2 Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.04%. The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.57 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production has stabilized [23][26][29]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 168.63 tons, including 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [32]. 3.3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of the soda ash industry has changed. In 2024E, the effective production capacity is 3930 tons, the production is 3650 tons, the operating rate is 78.20%, the apparent supply is 3536 tons, the total demand is 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference is 157 tons [33].