大越期货豆粕早报-20250618

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Bean Meal: The US soybean market is affected by factors such as lower - than - expected excellent rate and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas. In the domestic market, the import of soybeans in June is increasing, and the weak spot price restricts the upward movement of the bean meal price. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - For Soybeans: The US soybean market has a bottom - support due to weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas, but the bumper harvest in South America and good recent planting weather limit its upward potential. The domestic soybean market is influenced by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, while the bumper harvest in Brazil and the expected increase in domestic production limit the price increase. The A2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 4200 and 4300 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100, and soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4200 and 4300 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is beneficial to US soybeans, but the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back after the rise in the US soybean market. The domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, while the bean meal inventory remains low. The short - term market has returned to a volatile pattern, showing a strong - reality and weak - expectation situation. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for bean meal has weakened after May Day [12]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bean Meal: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Bearish factors include the increase in the total import of domestic soybeans in June and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [13]. - Soybeans: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. Bearish factors are the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil and the expected increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2900, with a basis of - 174, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 410,000 tons, a 7.19% increase from last week and a 58.79% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 47, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 5.996 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from last week and an 8.59% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - Bean Meal: The long positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - Soybeans: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, and funds have flowed in [10].