有色套利早报-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on June 18, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spot price is 78,700 in China and 9,823 in LME with a ratio of 8.04; March price is 78,200 in China and 9,700 in LME with a ratio of 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17 with a profit of - 1307.92, and spot export profit is 1072.03 [1] - Zinc: Spot price is 22,040 in China and 2,626 in LME with a ratio of 8.39; March price is 21,540 in China and 2,654 in LME with a ratio of 6.36. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.70 with a profit of - 797.78 [1] - Aluminum: Spot price is 20,620 in China and 2,517 in LME with a ratio of 8.19; March price is 20,165 in China and 2,514 in LME with a ratio of 8.12. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.61 with a profit of - 1063.18 [1] - Nickel: Spot price is 120,000 in China and 14,771 in LME with a ratio of 8.12. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.27 with a profit of - 3535.05 [1] - Lead: Spot price is 16,700 in China and 1,967 in LME with a ratio of 8.50; March price is 16,875 in China and 2,001 in LME with a ratio of 10.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.90 with a profit of - 793.18 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 330, - 510, - 780, - 950 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 496, 889, 1292, 1694 respectively [4] - Zinc: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 425, - 560, - 655, - 725 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 214, 333, 453, 572 respectively [4] - Aluminum: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 425, - 545, - 645, - 725 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, 561 respectively [4] - Lead: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 50, - 55, - 55, - 55 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, 527 respectively [4] - Nickel: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 660, - 470, - 330, - 170 respectively [4] - Tin: The 5 - 1 spread is - 780 with a theoretical spread of 5460 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 25 and - 305 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 475 and 862 respectively [4] - Zinc: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 60 and - 365 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 132 and 260 (also 199 and 261) respectively [4][5] - Lead: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 230 and 180 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 210 and 322 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.63, 3.88, 4.63, 0.94, 1.19, 0.78 in Shanghai (three - continuous) and 3.66, 3.79, 4.89, 0.97, 1.29, 0.75 in London (three - continuous) [5]