芳烃橡胶早报-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - For PTA, the near - term TA operation rate continues to rise, polyester operation rate slightly declines, inventory accumulates, basis remains strong, and spot processing fees weaken. PX domestic operation rate decreases month - on - month, overseas continues to rise, PXN and its structure continue to weaken. In the future, the contradiction in bottle - grade chips may drag down the polyester load, TA will enter the inventory accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting processing fees at high prices [2]. - For MEG, the near - term maintenance returns, the operation rate rises significantly, port inventory slightly accumulates, downstream stocking levels decline, and basis weakens. The fastest de - stocking stage at ports has passed, and it will transition to a balanced and slightly inventory - accumulating stage. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to changes in Iranian imports [7]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term device operation is stable, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory decreases month - on - month. The downstream polyester yarn operation rate declines, raw material stocking increases, and finished product inventory accumulates month - on - month. It is expected that the processing fee will remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts in the industry [7]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [7]. - For styrene, the prices of some raw materials and products decline. The domestic profits of some products change, and attention should be paid to the market dynamics [11]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Index Changes: From June 11 to 17, 2025, crude oil rose by 3.3, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 18, PTA internal - market spot price rose by 15, while the naphtha cracking spread decreased by 22.10, and PTA processing fee dropped by 88 [2]. - Device Changes: The 1.5 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the MEG internal - market price rose by 20, and the MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged, while the MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 76 [7]. - Device Changes: The 900,000 - ton device of Satellite was under maintenance, the 400,000 - ton device of Yankuang increased its load, and the 900,000 - ton device of Hengli restarted [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber rose by 20, short - fiber profit increased by 1, and pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 20 [7]. - Operation Conditions: The near - term device operation was stable at an operation rate of 92.1%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory decreased month - on - month [7]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the price of Shanghai 3L rubber rose by 50, and the price of Hainan glue rose by 100 [7]. - Market Conditions: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [7]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the pure - benzene (East China) price decreased by 85, the styrene (CFR China) price dropped by 15, and EPS domestic profit increased by 115 [11].