Report Overview - Report Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Industry: Methanol [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Data Sources: Wind, Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [5] 1. Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract decreased in price with reduced positions on Tuesday. The weighted contract decreased by 0.37%, with a reduction of 23,806 positions, and the 09 main contract reduced by 3,695 positions. The weighted contract showed a wide - range volatile trend after opening lower and finally closed with a small - bodied false positive line with upper and lower shadows [5]. - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Iranian situation affects methanol prices. Currently, Iranian methanol ports and shipments are normal, but there are reports of Israeli air strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, which may support methanol prices. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties increase price volatility. The short - term supply disruptions and the short - term rebound of upstream coal prices also support methanol prices, so it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5]. - From a technical perspective, in the hourly cycle, the RSI indicator entered the overbought area for the second time and then corrected, the MACD fast and slow lines were still above the zero axis, and the red bars continued to shorten. In the daily cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines both crossed above the zero axis, the red bars continued to lengthen, and the RSI indicator was in the overbought area and showed signs of correction. Overall, it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market Quotes: The MA2501 contract opened at 2,445, closed at 2,455, with a high of 2,466, a low of 2,410, a decline of 0.37%, a trading volume of 175,703, an open interest of 208,776, and a decrease in open interest of 9,733. The MA2505 contract opened at 2,388, closed at 2,387, with a high of 2,395, a low of 2,354, a decline of 0.33%, a trading volume of 1,694, an open interest of 3,589, and an increase in open interest of 243. The MA2509 contract opened at 2,440, closed at 2,455, with a high of 2,466, a low of 2,397, a decline of 0.37%, a trading volume of 2,061,228, an open interest of 816,410, and a decrease in open interest of 3,696 [7]. 3.2 Industry News - A coal - chemical project worth 59 billion yuan started. Inner Mongolia Zhuozheng Coal - Chemical Co., Ltd.'s methanol project, methanol - acetic acid extension project, and new - material project's finished and semi - finished product tank area project began construction. The first - phase project, estimated to cost 25.5 billion yuan, plans to produce more than 30 main and by - products such as acetic acid, ethanol, polyglycolic acid, and polyoxymethylene, with an expected annual output value of about 11.7 billion yuan. It is scheduled to be put into production in October 2026, and the second - phase project construction will be launched simultaneously. The long - term plan covers about 7,800 mu of land, with an estimated investment of 59 billion yuan, targeting high - end fine - chemical products in the new energy and new - material fields [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the main contract basis, production - sales price difference, futures price and warehouse receipt quantity, MA09 - MA01 spread, three - process methanol profit, and overseas methanol market price, but specific data details are not described in the text [20][24][25]
甲醇日报-20250618
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-18 04:35