Report Date - The report is dated June 18, 2025 [2] Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main contract of polysilicon fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of PS2508 was 34,010 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.93%. The trading volume was 62,835 lots, and the open interest was 51,277 lots, a net decrease of 5,586 lots [4] Outlook - The supply-demand contradiction has not further intensified after the end of the "rush installation," but the terminal pressure will gradually be transmitted upstream to the supply side. The weekly output in the second week of June remained at 22,000 tons, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 100,000 tons. It is difficult to increase production during the wet season, which will relieve the potential supply pressure in the distant months. If production cuts are implemented, the current spot and futures prices will be supported [4] - The weak reality is mainly reflected in the fact that the "rush installation" of downstream photovoltaic terminals is gradually coming to an end, and the terminal photovoltaic demand has dropped to around 40GW. Although the weekly data of silicon wafers and cells has not declined rapidly, the inventory has been accumulating for 9 consecutive weeks. There are few positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period [4] - The 07 contract is currently at a discount to the price range of reclaimed feedstock, reflecting the market's pessimistic expectations. The resistance to further decline is increasing. However, if the production cuts do not increase, the fundamentals will not provide a continuous driving force for a rebound, and the contract will mainly operate weakly within a range [4] Market News - As of June 17, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The transaction price range of n-type reclaimed feedstock was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p-type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250618
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-18 04:30