建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250618

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost-driven upward momentum for polyolefins has weakened, and they are experiencing high-level oscillations. Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply-demand dynamics. In the short term, cost logic still provides support, but as the geopolitical risk premium fades, polyolefins face the pressure of a high-level decline [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The L2509 contract of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7,317 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (0.51%), with a trading volume of 470,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 8,529 to 486,231 lots. The main contract of polypropylene (PP) closed at 7,125 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.25%), with a decrease in open interest of 4,930 to 455,500 lots. The futures rally has narrowed, and the market trading atmosphere has significantly declined. The supply-demand pattern has changed little. With the weakening of maintenance efforts and the launch of new production capacity, supply-side pressure has resurfaced. The downstream agricultural film industry's operating rate has declined to a relatively low level for the year, the packaging industry's short-term willingness to stock raw materials and finished products is not high, and the plastic weaving industry's operating rate is significantly lower than the same period in previous years [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On June 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, up 15,000 tons or 1.85% from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year. The domestic PP market showed a narrow consolidation. Traders faced increased resistance in selling, and some high-price quotes were slightly adjusted downward yesterday, while others remained basically stable. Downstream factories mainly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and actual transactions were dull. The mainstream prices of North China's drawn PP were between 7,100 - 7,250 yuan/ton, East China's between 7,130 - 7,230 yuan/ton, and South China's between 7,100 - 7,330 yuan/ton. The PE market prices continued to rise. In North China, some linear PE prices rose by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 250 yuan/ton, and low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 300 yuan/ton, and low-pressure and linear PE prices rose by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, linear and low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The prices of LLDPE in North China were between 7,280 - 7,430 yuan/ton, in East China between 7,350 - 7,750 yuan/ton, and in South China between 7,470 - 7,700 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two major oil companies' inventory, and two major oil companies' inventory year-on-year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values in the charts are not described in detail in the text [7][14][16].