建信期货股指日评-20250618

Report Overview - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trade risk is showing a缓和 trend, and the market trading logic is gradually shifting to the domestic economic fundamentals. The domestic economy maintains moderate growth, but there are challenges such as declining export growth, a bottoming - out real estate market, and intensified manufacturing competition. The market may experience a short - term phased correction, and it is recommended to maintain medium - to - low - position long contracts, with a phased preference for the relative performance of IF contracts [8][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On June 17, the Wind All - A index declined with shrinking volume. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in the index spot market closed down 0.09%, 0.04%, 0.29%, and 0.10% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the index futures market, futures generally outperformed spot. The IF and IC main contracts closed down 0.03% and 0.14% respectively, while the IH and IM main contracts closed up 0.09% and 0.04% respectively. Coal, utilities, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, while media, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors led the losses [6] 1.2 Future Outlook - In the external market, the CPI and labor market data released by the US last week were generally lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. After the China - US Geneva talks, the China - US tariffs returned to the level of an additional 10% each on April 2. Domestically, the May economic data showed a marginal decline in external demand and a marginal improvement in domestic demand. The single - month export in May increased by 6.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.3 pct compared to the previous month, and the single - month total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 1.3 pct. The investment data was average, with the narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate slightly narrowing to 5.6%, the manufacturing investment growth rate falling back to 8.5%, and real estate investment continuing to decline, reaching a 5 - year low. Overall, the China - US trade risk is easing, and the market trading logic is shifting to domestic fundamentals. The domestic economy may maintain a weak recovery in the second quarter, and there is uncertainty in exports in the third quarter. The market may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to maintain medium - to - low - position long contracts and prefer the IF contracts [8][9] 2. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including the performance of domestic major indices, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of the Wind All - A index, trading volume of stock index spot and futures, open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, and inter - period spread trend. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][14][18] 3. Industry News - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18 to 19 in Shanghai, and central financial regulatory authorities will release several major financial policies. Citigroup reported that the Fed's rate - cut expectation will weaken the attractiveness of gold, and gold prices are expected to fall below $3000 per ounce in the next few quarters. On June 17, the central bank conducted 1973 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1986 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1820 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1833 billion yuan [29]