建信期货铁矿石日评-20250618

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently in a situation where supply is becoming more abundant and demand is gradually declining, leading to a weakening trend in ore prices. However, due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises, the decline in ore prices may be limited in the short term. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment and potential uncertainties in steel exports may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Review: On June 17, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 699.0 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of iron ore with main grades at Qingdao Port showed mixed changes, with a fluctuation range of - 5 to + 5 yuan/ton. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, and the MACD red column began to narrow [7][9] - Future Outlook: In the short term, although the iron ore market is weak, there is still some support below due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment, potential uncertainties in steel exports after the 90 - day suspension period in the US, and the release of increased iron ore supply from the Xipo project may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - From June 9 to June 15, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 24% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. From June 17 to 21, a new round of heavy rainfall will occur from Southwest China to the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions. On June 17, relevant departments issued multiple meteorological warnings and the Ministry of Transport launched a level - 4 defense response to heavy rainfall [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore market, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of iron ore, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, and other data [16][18][24]