燃料油早报-20250618

Report Overview - Report Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team of ONGAN FUTURES [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking was volatile, with crude oil rising significantly. High-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread was volatile, with the 7 - 8 spread at $11.5, and the basis strengthened. The domestic FU showed a differentiation between near and far months, with the 07 contract falling to around -$5 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuating at $9. The Singapore 0.5 cracking declined, the month spread strengthened month-on-month, and the basis strengthened [5]. - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory continued to accumulate, high-sulfur floating storage accumulated, low-sulfur floating storage oscillated at a low level, ARA slightly destocked, floating storage inventory oscillated, Fujairah's onshore inventory accumulated, floating storage significantly accumulated, Saudi Arabia's shipments increased significantly, and Russia's shipments decreased month-on-month. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and not being eligible for physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future due to US sanctions. If the risk event in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, the impact will be greater. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, suppressing the near-month contracts of domestic and international FU, with low valuation and continued gaming. In the future, attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Middle East, and the large downward driving force for both domestic and international markets has decreased. The production of LU increased month-on-month [6]. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data (M1) | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | 2025/06/17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF | 409.51 | 417.96 | 441.01 | 440.56 | 458.53 | 17.97 | | 0.5% VLS | 461.45 | 468.13 | 487.74 | 480.32 | 500.63 | 20.31 | | HSFO - Brent | -2.98 | -2.76 | -2.60 | -1.20 | -1.72 | -0.52 | | 10ppm Gasoil | 616.64 | 625.97 | 662.68 | 661.89 | 704.24 | 42.35 | | VLSFO - Gasoil | -155.19 | -157.84 | -174.94 | -181.57 | -203.61 | -22.04 | | LGO - Brent | 15.03 | 16.61 | 16.61 | 17.44 | 19.66 | 2.22 | | VLSFO - HSFO | 51.94 | 50.17 | 46.73 | 39.76 | 42.10 | 2.34 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data (M1) | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst | 415.25 | 429.92 | 459.79 | 470.69 | - | | 180cst | 422.25 | 437.61 | 467.24 | 477.81 | - | | VLSFO | 488.19 | 499.41 | 525.21 | 526.47 | - | | Gasoil | 81.81 | 83.98 | 87.92 | 89.80 | - | | 380cst - Brent | -0.88 | -0.39 | 0.21 | 1.75 | - | | VLSFO - Gasoil | -117.20 | -122.04 | -125.40 | -138.05 | - | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | 2025/06/17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 435.55 | 448.16 | 471.75 | 484.57 | 485.00 | 0.43 | | FOB VLSFO | 499.42 | 511.48 | 534.27 | 536.09 | 539.02 | 2.93 | | 380 Basis | 12.95 | 10.25 | 7.80 | 10.40 | 8.03 | -2.37 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.8 | 6.2 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 10.5 | -0.5 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 17.6 | 17.1 | 20.3 | 18.7 | 18.6 | -0.1 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | 2025/06/17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2780 | 2852 | 3048 | 3079 | 3028 | -51 | | FU 05 | 2727 | 2798 | 2986 | 3004 | 2964 | -40 | | FU 09 | 2912 | 2997 | 3205 | 3276 | 3247 | -29 | | FU 01 - 05 | 53 | 54 | 62 | 75 | 64 | -11 | | FU 05 - 09 | -185 | -199 | -219 | -272 | -283 | -11 | | FU 09 - 01 | 132 | 145 | 157 | 197 | 219 | 22 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | 2025/06/17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3414 | 3496 | 3671 | 3695 | 3643 | -52 | | LU 05 | 3348 | 3461 | 3625 | 3620 | 3575 | -45 | | LU 09 | 3524 | 3609 | 3785 | 3829 | 3762 | -67 | | LU 01 - 05 | 66 | 35 | 46 | 75 | 68 | -7 | | LU 05 - 09 | -176 | -148 | -160 | -209 | -187 | 22 | | LU 09 - 01 | 110 | 113 | 114 | 134 | 119 | -15 | [5] Fuel Oil Morning Report Data (2025/06/17) | Product | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 475.20 | 4.51 | | - | 480.95 | 3.14 | | - | 530.09 | 3.62 | | - | 90.67 | 0.87 | | - | 2.10 | 0.35 | | - | -140.87 | -2.82 | [11]