原油成品油早报-20250618

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices rose significantly, reaching a multi - year single - day maximum increase on Friday with an enlarged intraday amplitude. Geopolitical risks soared due to the weakening of US President Trump's confidence in the Iran nuclear deal and Israel's preemptive strike on Iran. Iran started military retaliation over the weekend, and the threat of Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses an upward risk to oil prices. The fundamentals show that global oil product inventories are flat, US commercial inventories continue to decline, and refined oil inventories increase. The profit of global refineries declined this week, while the domestic main refinery's operating rate increased significantly. The oil market is in a risk - premium trading phase, and the risk is still rising. The price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Day - to - Day News - The change in API crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending June 13 was - 1.0133 billion barrels, the largest decline since the week ending August 25, 2023. US intelligence indicates that Iran is preparing for a possible attack on US bases. Trump refuted the assessment of the US National Intelligence Director that Iran is not manufacturing nuclear weapons and is inclined to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu believes Trump may participate in striking Iran in the coming days, and US Vice - President Vance said Trump may take further action to stop Iran's nuclear program [3][4][5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - For the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3644000 barrels to 432 million barrels, a 0.84% decline. Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma decreased by 40300 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 237000 barrels to 4021 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. US domestic crude oil production increased by 20000 barrels per day to 13428000 barrels per day in the week ending June 6, and net imports increased month - on - month. The number of oil rigs decreased by 3 to 439 in the week ending June 13, and the number of fracking wells decreased by 4 to 182. EIA gasoline inventories in the US for the week ending June 6 increased by 1504000 barrels. In China, the operating rate of main refineries increased this week while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with both gasoline and diesel production rising in main refineries and falling in independent refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel in local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories increased this week. The comprehensive profit of main refineries rebounded month - on - month, and that of local refineries improved [5] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Oil prices rose sharply this week, with a large intraday amplitude. Geopolitical risks increased due to Trump's attitude towards the Iran nuclear deal and Israel's attack on Iran. Iran's retaliation and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose an upward risk to oil prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are stable, US commercial inventories decline, and refined oil inventories increase. Global refinery profits declined this week, while domestic main refinery operating rates increased significantly. The oil market is in a risk - premium trading phase, and the risk continues to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [5]