永安期货甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250618

Group 1: Methanol - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of negative news realization. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation situation. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the United States, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [1] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the price of江苏现货 increased from 2383 to 2595, the日度变化 was 10, and the盘面MTO利润 remained at - 1001 except for - 986 on June 11 [1] Group 2: Plastic (Polyethylene) - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The inventory of polyethylene is neutral overall. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in June decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of东北亚乙烯 increased from 790 to 800, the price of华东LL increased from 7210 to 7415, and the仓单 decreased from 5734 to 5556 [6] Group 3: PP (Polypropylene) - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The upstream and middle - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders are average currently, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 6340 to 6410, the price of华东PP increased from 7015 to 7140, and the出口利润 remained at - 20 [6] Group 4: PVC - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 200, and the factory - pickup basis is - 380. The downstream start - up is seasonal, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously decreasing. There are seasonal maintenance of northwest plants in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In June, pay attention to the realization of new plant commissioning and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders are acceptable. In June, macro - factors to watch include the ZZJ meeting and the US interest - rate decision. Coal prices are weak, and the cost of semi - coke is also weak. Calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits with PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory at a high level is continuously decreasing, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [10] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of西北电石 decreased from 2350 to 2300, the price of山东烧碱 decreased from 872 to 852, and the price of电石法 - 西北 increased from 4420 to 4450 [10]