永安期货有色早报-20250618

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and inventory of copper still provide support, but attention should be paid to whether orders show signs of weakening in the off - season next week [1]. - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are acceptable, but demand should be monitored. The calendar spread long position can be held if the absolute price drops [1]. - The idea of short - allocating zinc remains unchanged. Long the domestic and short the foreign zinc can be continued, and attention should be paid to the calendar spread short - position opportunity [4]. - Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [7]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to fluctuate weakly [10][11]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [12]. - Tin can be cautiously held for long - allocation in the short term, and high - short opportunities after the maintenance period should be monitored in the long - term [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the cost reduction caused by green - electricity subsidies and falling thermal - power prices [17]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term and continue to accumulate inventory next week, which will put upward pressure on prices [19][20]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 11 - 17, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 205, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 234, and the LME inventory decreased by 1725 [1]. - Market Situation: Overseas, LME warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained high. Domestically, the monthly spread widened slightly due to export expectations and downstream order flexibility. Global visible copper inventory is in a downward trend, and domestic inventory is not expected to accumulate rapidly. Consumption remains resilient [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 11 - 17, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 10, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2100 [1]. - Market Situation: Supply increased slightly, and imports were large from January to April. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, and there is still a supply - demand gap. Inventory depletion is gentle from June to July [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 11 - 17, zinc prices fluctuated and declined, the domestic TC remained unchanged, and the imported TC increased slightly. The domestic social inventory fluctuated, and the LME inventory decreased by 1350 [1][4]. - Market Situation: Supply increased in June, with a monthly increase of about 25,000 tons in smelting compared to May. Domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. The inflection point of inventory accumulation is expected to occur in mid - June [4]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 11 - 17, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 900, the spot import return increased by 208.53, and the LME inventory increased by 1986 [7]. - Market Situation: Pure nickel production remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand was weak overall, and overseas nickel - plate inventory remained stable while domestic inventory decreased slightly [7]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 11 - 17, the 304 cold - rolled and hot - rolled prices decreased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price decreased by 100. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [10]. - Market Situation: Production increased seasonally in April and decreased passively in some steel mills from late May. Demand is mainly based on rigid needs, and the fundamentals are weak [10][11]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 11 - 17, lead prices rebounded from a low level, the spot import return decreased by 58.54, and the LME inventory increased by 23,975 [12]. - Market Situation: Supply - side scrap volume was weak, and demand - side battery inventory was high. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week [12]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 11 - 17, tin prices fluctuated widely, the spot import return increased by 894.60, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [14]. - Market Situation: Supply was affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and domestic smelting cuts. Demand was weak, and the short - term supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [14]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 11 - 17, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 10, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 755 [17]. - Market Situation: The overall market operation rate increased slightly, and there is a pattern of double - reduction in short - term supply and demand. Future supply has potential pressure, and prices are expected to bottom - out in the long - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 11 - 17, lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level, the SMM electric - carbon and industrial - carbon prices decreased by 50, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 330 [19]. - Market Situation: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate next week, putting pressure on prices [19][20].