大越期货原油早报-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term war situation has a risk of escalation, and the significant reduction in US API inventory supports oil prices. Although the IEA slightly lowered the expected increase in crude oil demand for this year and next year in its monthly report, the impact is limited. The market focus remains on the war situation. The domestic crude oil performs the strongest due to supply sources. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the future. The short - term range is 550 - 560, and long - term long positions should be closed at high levels [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump warned that the US patience is running out and urged Iran to "unconditionally surrender". He also said Japan was "tough" in trade talks and the EU hadn't proposed a fair agreement. The IEA lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day (previously 740,000 barrels per day) and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day (previously 760,000 barrels per day) [3]. - Basis: On June 17, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.74 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $73.62 per barrel, with a basis of 28.07 yuan/barrel, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels in the week ending June 13, far exceeding the expected decrease of 580,000 barrels. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.644 million barrels in the week ending June 6, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.96 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 403,000 barrels in the week ending June 6, compared with an increase of 576,000 barrels in the previous value. As of June 17, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 4.029 million barrels, remaining unchanged [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the price was above the average line [3]. - Main Position: As of June 10, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. - Expectation: The short - term range is 550 - 560, and long - term long positions should be closed at high levels [3]. 2. Recent News - There are reports that Trump is planning to provide direct military assistance to Israel in the Israel - Iran war, which may involve the US in another Middle - East war. Iran has warned that it will attack US bases in the region if the US intervenes. The US has sent about 30 refueling planes to Europe [5]. - The air war between Israel and Iran has entered the fifth day. Trump urged Iran to "unconditionally surrender" and said he knew the whereabouts of Iranian leader Khamenei. The US is deploying more fighter jets to the Middle East, and some of Khamenei's main military and security advisors have died in the Israeli attack. Iran's network security command has banned officials from using communication devices and mobile phones [5]. - The Trump administration has shelved a cross - departmental working group established to force Russia to accelerate peace talks with Ukraine, as Trump has no intention of taking a tougher stance on Russia [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: The Middle - East war situation may further escalate, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may intensify again [6]. - Likely to Fall: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US trade relations with other economies remain tense [6]. - Market Driver: Geopolitical conflicts drive the short - term market, and the market awaits the peak summer demand season in the long - term [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement price of Brent crude oil dropped from $74.23 to $73.23, a decrease of $1.00 or 1.35%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil dropped from $72.98 to $71.77, a decrease of $1.21 or 1.66%. The settlement price of SC crude oil rose from 513.7 to 540.9, an increase of 27.2 or 5.29%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil rose from $72.78 to $73.15, an increase of $0.37 or 0.51% [7]. - Spot Quotes: The price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $75.29 to $73.83, a decrease of $1.46 or 1.94%. The price of WTI dropped from $72.98 to $71.77, a decrease of $1.21 or 1.66%. The price of Oman crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region rose from $72.83 to $72.95, an increase of $0.12 or 0.16%. The price of Shengli crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region rose from $70.26 to $70.86, an increase of $0.60 or 0.85%. The price of Dubai crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region rose from $72.70 to $73.00, an increase of $0.30 or 0.41% [9]. - API Inventory: As of June 13, the API inventory was 450.595 million barrels, a decrease of 10.133 million barrels from the previous period [10]. - EIA Inventory: As of June 6, the EIA inventory was 432.415 million barrels, a decrease of 3.644 million barrels from the previous period [14]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The supply - demand gap and production data of OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 - Q4 are presented [20]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of June 10, the net long position was 191,941, an increase of 23,984 from the previous period [16]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of June 10, the net long position was 196,922, an increase of 29,159 from the previous period [19].