合成橡胶产业日报-20250618

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Some traders placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual positive factors hindered sales. Production enterprise inventories decreased slightly, while trading enterprise inventories increased [2]. - The supply of raw material butadiene was relatively sufficient, weakening the cost support for butadiene rubber. Recently, many domestic butadiene rubber producers had maintenance and shutdowns [2]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of previously overhauled enterprises gradually returned to normal levels. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was expected to fluctuate slightly. The BR2508 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,900 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,740 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 255 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 16,777, with a month - on - month increase of 596 [2]. - The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber was 5,170 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was - 205 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong and Shanghai was also 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was at $76.45 per barrel, up $3.22. WTI crude oil was at $74.84 per barrel, up $3.07. Naphtha CFR Japan was at $625.63 per ton, up $1.5. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was $810 per ton, up $10. The CFR China butadiene price was $1,070 per ton, up $20 [2]. - The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The weekly butadiene production capacity was 147,700 tons, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, up 0.96 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, down 1.88 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 17,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 65.03%, down 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 306 yuan/ton, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [2]. - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, a decrease of 650 tons. The trader's inventory of butadiene rubber was 6,210 tons, an increase of 530 tons [2]. - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, up 4.12 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 61.24%, down 2.23 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million, a decrease of 1.26 million. The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million, a decrease of 1.24 million [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.28 days, an increase of 0.44 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 11, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% [2]. - As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year，on - year decrease of 10 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points [2]. - In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles, a 5% decrease from April and a 6% increase from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].