瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250618

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term urea futures prices may be on the stronger side, and it is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton [2] - The probability of an increase in urea production is high considering short - term enterprise malfunctions. Agricultural demand is tepid, and domestic industrial demand has weakened. As the market enters the traditional off - season, the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has declined [2] - Recently, the volume of urea gathering at ports has increased. International regional conflicts have led to rising urea prices at home and abroad, driving the release of domestic agricultural demand. Urea factory shipments have increased, and the inventory of domestic urea enterprises has decreased, but the overall de - stocking of urea is limited. Next week, urea is expected to gather at ports at an accelerated pace, and with the advancement of agricultural demand, the de - stocking amplitude may increase [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1789 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou urea is 53 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 261,333 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 24,492 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is 15,003 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 4,365 sheets, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,445 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1,800 yuan/ton, 1,790 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,820 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 10 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 41 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2] - FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main ports are 360 US dollars/ton and 355 US dollars/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 245,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 45,000 tons; enterprise inventory is 1,177,100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 141,700 tons [2] - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 87.8%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.63 percentage points; the daily urea output is 201,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,700 tons [2] - Urea export volume is 0 tons, with no week - on - week change; the monthly output of urea is 6,293,230 tons, with an increase of 448,150 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 33.81%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.32 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 63.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 185 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.2 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 290 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 53 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4,809,000 tons, with a decrease of 1,041,700 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,700 tons, with a decrease of 300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,136,000 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.49% [2] - As of June 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 245,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 19.51% [2] - As of June 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,413,200 tons, a decrease of 26,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.82%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 87.80%, a decrease of 1.63 percentage points from the previous period, and the trend continued to decline [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]