国债期货日报-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic fundamental data in May showed mixed results, with industrial growth slightly declining, social retail sales exceeding expectations, fixed - asset investment scale continuously shrinking, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. Financial data remained divided, with government bonds being the main support for social financing, and corporate credit demand weakening due to the cooling real estate market and hidden debt replacement. In the trade aspect, the pulling effect of pre - exported goods continued to weaken, and exports in May slightly declined [3]. - The central bank announced eight incremental policies at the Lujiazui Forum, which are helpful for the construction of a modern monetary policy system and enhancing the ability to manage exchange - rate risks. Overseas, the US labor market cooled, the number of initial jobless claims continued to increase, and the market expected the Fed's first interest - rate cut to be in September [3]. - Given that domestic domestic demand needs to be boosted and the central bank has carried out repurchase operations to maintain a balanced and loose capital market, treasury bond futures are expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to maintain a certain position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL were 109.140, 106.280, 102.544, and 120.900 respectively, with changes of - 0.01%, - 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.09%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL were 48,250, 39,784, 27,708, and 52,815 respectively, with changes of - 429, + 194, + 1,018, and - 1,625 [2]. - Futures Spreads: The spreads of various contracts showed different changes. For example, the TL2512 - 2509 spread increased by 0.06 to - 0.13, and the T09 - TL09 spread decreased by 0.10 to - 11.76 [2]. - Futures Positions: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL showed different trends. For example, the T main - contract position decreased by 2,200 to 203,959, and the TF main - contract position decreased by 804 to 155,973 [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed. For example, the net price of 250007.IB decreased by 0.0103 to 101.4059, and the net price of 250006.IB increased by 0.0037 to 100.3779 [2]. - Active Bonds: The yields of active bonds decreased. For example, the 1 - year yield decreased by 2.85bp to 1.3700%, and the 3 - year yield decreased by 2.50bp to 1.3825% [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The short - term interest rates showed different trends. For example, the silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 0.05bp to 1.3795%, and the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.30bp to 1.3660% [2]. - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry News - Central Bank Policies: The central bank announced eight incremental policies at the Lujiazui Forum, including promoting RMB foreign - exchange futures trading and establishing an inter - bank market transaction report, which is conducive to the construction of a modern monetary policy system and enhancing exchange - rate risk management capabilities [2][3]. - CSRC Reforms: The CSRC will launch a "1 + 6" policy measure to further deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, including setting up a growth layer and restarting the listing of unprofitable enterprises under the fifth set of standards [2]. - Financial Regulatory Policies: The financial regulatory authority will replicate and promote the experience of the free - trade zone and free - trade port in expanding institutional opening, support foreign - funded institutions to participate in more financial business pilots, and optimize the business environment for foreign investment [2].