瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250618

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of polysilicon has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, but market expectations for new capacity launches are increasing. At current price levels, most enterprises are in a stage of losing cash costs, with production enthusiasm dampened and some even suspending delivery product lines. The demand side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic module production schedules adjusted down, silicon wafer enterprise self - regulatory quotas reduced, and N - type silicon wafer prices and production declining. After the "rush to install" boom in the terminal market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment and low procurement enthusiasm. Overseas photovoltaic market demand is also uncertain due to unstable macro - economic environment and international trade frictions, further suppressing polysilicon demand growth. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. For long - term operations, shorting is still the main strategy [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 33,370 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread of polysilicon is 1,305 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the main polysilicon position is 30,435 lots, down 13,008 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 25,945 yuan/ton, down 705 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 35,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 1,490 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the average price of polysilicon (dense material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 7,425 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons per month, down 12,197.89 tons; the import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons per month, up 71.51 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 954 tons, down 1,952 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 4.88 US dollars/kg, down 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71.928 million kilowatts, down 6.516 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 pieces, down 11,583,800 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 20,120,440 pieces, up 10,274,320 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/piece, up 0.02 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 21.67, down 0.62 [2] Industry News - As of June 17, the mainstream market price of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material is 31 yuan/kg, the price is stable; the mainstream market price of N - type dense material is 34 yuan/kg, the price is stable; the mainstream market price of N - type re - feeding material is 37.5 yuan/kg, the price is stable; the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 34 yuan/kg, the price is stable; the mainstream market price of N - type polysilicon is 34.5 yuan/kg. China's polysilicon imports in May were 793 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.5%. The cumulative imports from January to May were 10,097 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% [2]