瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250618
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-18 09:48
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market maintains a situation of weak supply and light demand, with industrial inventories accumulating slightly and remaining at a high level. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 59,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,092 hands, up 1,037 hands; the position of the main contract is 306,885 hands, down 450 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 400 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 31,713 hands/ton, down 330 hands [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 697 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,595 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,576 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.1.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the enterprise start - up rate is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 51,700 yuan/ton, down 0.04; the price of lithium manganate is 28,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 215,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 145,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 121,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the start - up rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the start - up rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 47%, down 10 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 5,608,000 vehicles, up 1,713,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 855,000 vehicles, up 336,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 21.27%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 22.92%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.1.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 106,820 contracts, up 4,804 contracts; the total put position is 37,986 contracts, up 1,633 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 35.56%, down 0.0738 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money IV is down 0.0079 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. In the first five months, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The added value of high - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increased by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively in May [2]. - Yahua Group plans to rename its wholly - owned subsidiary Sichuan Yahua Lithium Industry Technology Co., Ltd. to "Yahua Lithium Industry Group" and transfer the equity of five subsidiaries related to lithium business to it for free [2]. - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy's sales volume of new energy materials from January to May 2025 was about 47,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 20.95%. Among them, the sales volume of lithium cobaltate was about 22,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 53%, and the sales volume of ternary materials (including lithium iron phosphate and others) was 23,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2% [2]. - In May, US retail sales recorded the largest decline since the beginning of the year. After the April data was revised to a 0.1% decline, the unadjusted retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and the retail sales excluding automobiles decreased by 0.3% [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - Supply: The production willingness of some smelters has recovered due to the previous rebound in futures prices. In terms of imports and exports, the export volume from Chile has decreased significantly, and the domestic supply is expected to be high in the short term and then gradually decline [2]. - Demand: Due to the off - season of consumption, the downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Although the lithium price has weakened recently, enterprises have no intention to further stock up, and the spot market transactions are still cautious and cold [2]. - Option Market: The put - call ratio of the position is 35.56%, down 0.0738% month - on - month. The call position in the option market dominates, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 axis, and the red bars have just appeared [2].