瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, it is expected that this week's production will remain flat, demand will contract, and prices will face pressure. The basis of soda ash has started to deviate significantly, and basis - regression trading may emerge. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, in the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, while in the medium - to long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is maintained. The basis regression has made some progress and will continue to dominate trading, but the height and strength of the rebound are limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1170 yuan/ton, up 11 from the previous day; glass main contract closing price: 980 yuan/ton, up 6 [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 190 yuan/ton, up 5; soda ash main contract open interest: 1518131 lots, down 258842; glass main contract open interest: 1458550 lots, down 13809 [2]. - Soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread: 11, up 4; glass 9 - 1 contract spread: - 58, unchanged; soda ash basis: 51 yuan/ton, up 25; glass basis: 70 yuan/ton, up 6 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1210 yuan/ton, up 10; Central China heavy soda ash: 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light soda ash: 1285 yuan/ton, down 20; Central China light soda ash: 1240 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1044 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets: 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.9%, up 4.14; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.42%, down 0.11 [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.56 million tons/year, down 0.12; glass in - production line number: 224, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 170.95 million tons, up 2.32; glass enterprise inventory: 6968.5 million heavy boxes, down 6.9 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 17835.84 million square meters, up 4839.38; cumulative real estate completion area: 15647.85 million square meters, up 2587.58 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Summer Davos Forum will be held in Tianjin; China announces the evacuation of Chinese citizens from Iran and Israel; domestic refined oil prices are raised; in May, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks; China's new - generation manned spacecraft "Mengzhou" zero - height escape flight test was successful; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the so - called "EU cancellation of China - EU high - level economic dialogue"; Liu Qiangdong confirmed JD.com's entry into the hotel and tourism industry; JD.com hopes to apply for stablecoin licenses in all major currency countries globally [2]. 3.6 Macro - level Information - At the end of May, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, M1 increased by 2.3% year - on - year; at the end of May 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year - on - year; the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16 with a term of 6 months [2].