建信期货工业硅日报-20250619

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Industrial silicon [4] Group 2: Market Performance - Futures price: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,425 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The trading volume was 451,986 lots, and the open interest was 317,763 lots, with a net decrease of 1,130 lots [4] - Spot price: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price range of 553 was 8,100 - 8,300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Supply: Industrial silicon production has not reached the quantity required for supply - demand balance. The resumption of production during the wet season is continuing to increase the supply [4] - Demand: There is no change in the demand side. Domestic demand remains at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remain at around 50,000 tons. If polysilicon increases the production cut, it will further negatively affect industrial silicon [4] - Inventory: The futures and spot inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, and there is no inventory - reduction driver in the short term [4] - Market trend: Although the supply - demand situation has not improved, the commodity index has continued to rebound recently. The spot price of industrial silicon is supported by the cash cost and remains stable. In the short term, the long and short sides have initially reached a weak balance, and the price will move within a narrow range. The resistance increases when the price rebounds above 7,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Market News - Futures warehouse receipts: On June 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 55,620 lots, a net decrease of 448 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Policy news: The CSRC will allow qualified overseas investors to participate in on - site ETF option trading from October 9, 2025, and the trading purpose is limited to hedging [5] - Export data: According to customs statistics, in April 2025, industrial silicon exports were 60,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.19%. The overall overseas market is relatively stable, and the change in export volume is small [5]