甲醇日报-20250619

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Jin, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Li Jie, Feng Zeren [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Research Team [4] - Data Source: Wind, CCB Futures Research and Development Department [5] Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract increased in position and rose on Wednesday. The weighted contract added 84,058 lots, and the 09 main contract added 7,5511 lots. The weighted contract showed a high - opening, volatile upward trend and closed with a medium - bodied positive line with short upper and lower shadows, rising 2.36% overall. Methanol is expected to continue the geopolitical conflict trend in the short - term, mainly fluctuating strongly [5]. - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous day. As of June 18, 2025, domestic methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons or 3.10% from the previous period. Sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 273,800 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 9.37% from the previous period. Domestic methanol port inventory was 586,400 tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from the previous data. The weekly arrival volume decreased significantly, and the port inventory decreased this week [6]. - Technically, in the hourly line cycle, the RSI indicator is close to the over - bought area, and the MACD fast and slow lines are running above the zero axis with repeated divergence. In the daily line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are running above the zero axis, and the red column is continuously lengthening. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures market: For MA2501, the opening price was 2,468, the closing price was 2,500, the highest price was 2,505, the lowest price was 2,455, the increase was 1.83%, the trading volume was 146,252, the open interest was 222,810, the open interest change was 14,034, and the speculation degree was 0.66. For MA2505, the opening price was 2,388, the closing price was 2,408, the highest price was 2,417, the lowest price was 2,387, the increase was 0.88%, the trading volume was 2,111, the open interest was 3,452, the open interest change was - 137, and the speculation degree was 0.61. For MA2509, the opening price was 2,469, the closing price was 2,517, the highest price was 2,527, the lowest price was 2,461, the increase was 2.53%, the trading volume was 2,280,427, the open interest was 891,921, the open interest change was 75,511, and the speculation degree was 2.56 [7]. 2. Industry News - The first green ethanol co - production green methanol project in China was signed. China National Chemical Tianchen Company, Beijing Heneng Times Biotechnology Co., Ltd., and East China University of Science and Technology signed a tri - party cooperation agreement. They used the remaining materials from the cellulose ethanol production process as raw materials to form a complete set of green methanol wet gasification co - production industrialization solutions, achieving the cross - border integration of biomass fermentation and gasification technologies, and solving many pain points in other green methanol production processes [13]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the basis of the main contract, the price difference between production and sales areas, the profit of three methanol production processes, the overseas market price of methanol, the futures price and the number of warehouse receipts, and the price difference between MA09 and MA01 [16][20][24].