原木期货日报-20250619

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for logs has entered the off - season, with the expected seasonal reduction in shipments from New Zealand during winter, resulting in a pattern of weak supply and demand in the fundamentals. The 07 contract will enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there are significant differences in the disk under the logic of subsequent delivery costs. There is limited upward space at the current position of the disk, and it is recommended to participate in reverse spreads or short far - month contracts on rallies [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2507 contract closed at 795.5 yuan/cubic meter on June 18, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter (0.32%) from June 17; Log 2509 contract was at 795.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 7.0 yuan/cubic meter (-0.87%); Log 2511 contract was at 796.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 9.5 yuan/cubic meter (-1.18%) [2] - The 7 - 9 spread was 0.5 on June 18, up 9.5 from June 17; the 9 - 11 spread was - 1.5, up 2.5; the 7 - 11 spread was - 1.0, up 12.0 [2] - The 07 contract basis was - 45.5 yuan/cubic meter on June 18, up 7.5 from June 17; the 09 contract basis was - 45.0, up 17.0; the 11 contract basis was - 46.5, up 19.5 [2] - Spot prices of some radiata pine at Rizhao Port increased, with 3.9A small radiata pine up 20 yuan/cubic meter (2.82%), 3.9A medium radiata pine up 10 yuan/cubic meter (1.35%), and 3.9A large radiata pine up 10 yuan/cubic meter (1.20%) [2] - Some radiata pine and spruce spot prices at Taicang Port and Rizhao Port remained unchanged [2] - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged from June 13 to June 20 [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.188 on June 18, up 0.01 from June 17, with a change of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 778.03 yuan, up 0.77 yuan (0%) [2] Supply: Monthly - The port shipment volume in May was 195.5 million cubic meters, up 22.8 million cubic meters (13.20%) from April. The number of ships at the port was 58.0, down 5.0 (-7.94%) [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 345 million cubic meters, up 6 million cubic meters (1.77%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 201.00 million cubic meters, up 4.96%; in Jiangsu, it was 113.31 million cubic meters, up 1.19% [3] Demand - As of June 13, the daily average log outbound volume in China was 5.98 million cubic meters, down 0.33 million cubic meters (-5%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.30 million cubic meters, down 2%; in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, down 17% [3]