《能源化工》日报-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - Prices: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - Operation Rate: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - Prices: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - Operation Rate: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Prices: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - Supply: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - Demand: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - Inventory: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - Prices: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - Supply: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - Inventory: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - Raw Material Prices: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - Styrene Prices: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - Operation Rate and Inventory: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - Prices: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - Operation Rate: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - Inventory: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - Prices: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - Inventory: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - Market Outlook: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].