大越期货天胶早报-20250619

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral, with some aspects showing a slightly bearish tendency [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. Market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are as follows: supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is high, rated as neutral; the basis is - 10 with a spot price of 14000, rated as neutral; inventory shows different trends in the exchange and Qingdao area, rated as neutral; the price is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, rated as neutral; the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions, rated as bearish; market sentiment dominates and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Leverage Factors and Main Risk Points - Positive Factors: High - level downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resilient spot prices [6]. - Negative Factors: Increasing supply, rising market inventory, and a bearish external environment [6]. - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 18, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was also involved [8]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory has changed little recently, and Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [14][17]. - Import: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][29][32]. - Basis: The basis narrowed on June 18 [35].