大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250619

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, considering factors such as macroeconomics, cost, supply - demand, basis, inventory, and market trends. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, showing the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. In terms of supply - demand, it was the off - season for agricultural films, the demand for packaging films was weakening, and the pressure of new capacity commissioning still existed. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products was 7400 (+40), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract was - 18, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which was neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory was 55.6 tons (-1.3), which was neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PE would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost - side benefits were positive, while new capacity commissioning and weak demand were negative factors. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. The downstream demand was generally weak, especially for pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products was 7300 (+50), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract was 86, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, showing a bullish trend [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory was 60.8 tons (+2.6), which was neutral [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [7]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand for plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PP would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [7]. - Likely Factors: Cost - side benefits were positive, while weak demand was a negative factor. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [9]. Market Data - LLDPE Market Data: The spot price of delivery products was 7400 (+40), the price of the 09 contract was 7418 (+101), the basis was - 18 (-61), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 556 (-13) [10]. - PP Market Data: The spot price of delivery products was 7300 (+50), the price of the 09 contract was 7214 (+89), the basis was 86 (-39), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 608 (+26) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].