大越期货玻璃早报-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With production profit at a low level, industry cold repairs increasing,开工率 and output dropping to historical lows, while terminal demand remains weak and factory inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term expectation is for the glass price to mainly fluctuate at a low level [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 980 yuan/ton, showing a 0.62% increase from the previous value. The spot price of the safety large board in Shahe remains unchanged at 1044 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.57% from the previous value [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1044 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [13]. Cost - side of Fundamentals - The profit of coal production lines for glass production has rebounded, the loss of natural gas production lines has narrowed, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [19]. Production - side of Fundamentals - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with an operating rate of 75.57%. The number of operating production lines and the daily melting volume are at historical lows for the same period [23][25]. Demand - side of Fundamentals - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 468.08 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [29][4]. Inventory - side of Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.685 million weight boxes, a 0.10% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the surplus is 1.51 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94% and a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [45].