广发期货《有色》日报-20250619

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamentals remained weak, with supply at a high level and demand recovering slowly. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated, with fundamentals under pressure. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand. An approach of shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points is recommended [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore supply. The demand is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - to - long - term, a shorting - on - rallies strategy is suggested, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to see an increase in supply and potential inventory accumulation. The medium - term price is expected to reach the cash cost of 2,700 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is supported in the short - term but may face pressure in Q3, with the price expected to range around 20,000 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Catalog Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.13%. The futures import loss decreased by 5.75%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% [1]. - Cost: The cost of integrated MHP and external - purchased raw materials for producing electrowon nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. - New Energy Materials Price: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.36%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. - Spread: The spreads between different contract months showed various changes [1]. - Supply and Demand, Inventory: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62%, and imports increased by 8.18%. Inventories in various regions decreased to different extents [1]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The spot prices of 304/2B stainless steel remained stable, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 11.54% [4]. - Raw Material Price: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%, and the price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. - Spread: The spreads between different contract months changed [4]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36%, imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85% [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased [6]. - Spread: The spreads between different contract months decreased [6]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. In April, imports increased by 56.33% and exports increased by 233.72% [6]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.11%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 20.74% [8]. - Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss: The import loss decreased by 1.10% [8]. - Spread: The spreads between different contract months showed significant changes [8]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% [8]. Zinc - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%, and the premium decreased [10]. - Ratio and Profit/Loss: The import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased [10]. - Spread: The spreads between different contract months changed slightly [10]. - Fundamental Data: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%, and in April, imports increased by 2.40% and exports increased by 75.76% [10]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%, and the premium decreased. The prices of alumina in different regions decreased slightly [13]. - Ratio and Profit/Loss: The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [13]. - Spread: The spreads between different contract months increased [13]. - Fundamental Data: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% [13]. Copper - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap spread increased by 1.08% [14]. - Spread: The spreads between different contract months decreased [14]. - Fundamental Data: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%, and in April, imports decreased by 19.06% [14].