LPG早报-20250619

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are improving marginally but still face pressure, and geopolitical risks are significant. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Price and Profit - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4570. PP prices rose, PDH production profit worsened, and FEI production profit was lower than CP. PG futures prices increased significantly, with the 07 - 09 spread changing from -46 to 114 [1] - Civil gas prices rose significantly, and the cheapest deliverable became East China civil gas at 4603. Shandong showed signs of stabilization; East China was generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but improved marginally due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; South China's spot prices rebounded due to typhoon - affected arrivals. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (+10) [1] - Outer - market prices strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. The PG - CP spread reached 18 US dollars (+27), and the FEI - CP spread was -19 (+31). Freight rates increased, and the waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] Production Profit and Spread - PDH production profit worsened, FEI production profit was lower than CP; alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, isomerization etherification profit decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking spreads declined [1] Inventory and Supply - Demand - Port and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1] - Chemical demand improved overall, with the PDH operating rate rising to 64.3% and the alkylation operating rate rising to 48.18%. MTBE production also increased significantly, and a large number of MTBE export orders supported prices [1] - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline. The number of registered warrants was 9005 lots (-335) [1]