大越期货豆粕早报-20250619

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as increased soybean imports in June and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - effectiveness advantage of domestic soybeans, and the expected increase in imports. It is also in a state of interaction between various factors and may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement reached in China - US tariff negotiations is beneficial for US soybeans, but the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pullback in the US soybean market. The market is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has recovered from a low level after May Day. However, the soybean meal inventory remains low, and the soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a state of oscillation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, resulting in a weakening demand for soybean meal after May Day. But the tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectation of soybean meal, and the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weakening and oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans [13]. - Low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills [13]. - Uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total volume of imported soybeans arriving in China will reach a high in June [13]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America persists [13]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [14]. - The expected increase in demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectation [14]. Bearish for Soybeans - The expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans persists, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans [14]. - The expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2900, with a basis of - 162, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 410,000 tons, a 7.19% increase from last week and a 58.79% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 58, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 5.996 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from last week and an 8.59% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10].