大越期货沥青期货早报-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, but it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week. The demand side is affected by the peak - season stimulus, but overall demand recovery is lower than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is continuously being depleted. Crude oil prices are strengthening, and cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. It is predicted that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating between 3664 - 3726 [8][10] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 32.8979%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 549,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.86%, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 708,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06%. Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure [8] - Demand: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 14.7825%, a month - on - month increase of 2.45 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 25.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 32%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 602.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 711.6571 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.92%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the market in the short - term [9] - Expectation: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is lower than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously being depleted. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. It is predicted that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating between 3664 - 3726 [10] - Leverage Factors: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support. Negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] - Main Logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Base Price: On June 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 105 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11] - Inventory: Social inventory is 1.353 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%; factory inventory is 792,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 350,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%. Social inventory is continuously increasing, while factory and port inventories are continuously decreasing [11] - Futures Market: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract is above MA20 [11] - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [11]