广发期货《农产品》日报-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian palm oil production is decreasing while exports are increasing, which may support the performance of crude palm oil futures. It is likely to break through and reach the range of 4200 - 4250. In China, there is pressure for a strong shock or short - term correction after reaching a high level. After sideways consolidation around 8500 yuan, it may follow the Malaysian palm oil and reach the previous range of 8800 - 9000 yuan. - Regarding soybean oil, the bio - diesel policies are only proposals. CBOT soybean oil has risen by 8 cents, with a nearly 17% increase, and may have a short - term adjustment. In China, the basis quotation is under pressure due to increasing inventory and the off - season demand [1]. 2.2 Meal Industry - The operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybeans have a fast planting progress but a lower good - quality rate. Brazilian soybean sales have declined recently while the crushing profit has recovered. - In China, the arrival volume, inventory of soybeans and bean meal are rising rapidly, and the basis is weak. However, the strength of US soybeans supports domestic bean meal prices. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate strongly, but there is pressure on the upside [2]. 2.3 Corn Industry - In the long - term, the tight supply and increasing demand of corn support its price increase. In the short - term, the price is strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high level, and the market will remain volatile at a high level. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy releases [3][5]. 2.4 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs maintains an oscillating structure. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the demand is weak. The market has no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward driving force is also weak [7][8]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - The global sugar supply tends to be loose, which puts pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar price is also expected to be weak - oscillating due to factors such as increasing import profits and weak demand [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The strong basis of old cotton supports the cotton price, but the expected high yield of new cotton brings long - term pressure. The downstream demand has a marginal improvement but lacks a strong driving force. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range [13]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The national egg supply is large, and the digestion of low - price eggs is okay while high - price eggs have a slow sales. It is expected that the egg price will decline slightly and then stabilize, and there may be some factors trying to boost the price in the later stage [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Soybean Oil: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a 0.36% increase; the futures price of Y2509 was 7680 yuan, up 0.87%; the basis of Y2509 was 670 yuan, down 5.10% [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong was 8800 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.11% decrease; the futures price of P2509 was 8350 yuan, up 0.80%; the basis of P2509 was 450 yuan, down 14.45%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in September was 8872.7 yuan, up 0.31%, and the import profit was - 523 yuan, up 6.82% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9900 yuan, up 120 yuan, a 1.54% increase; the futures price of O1509 was 9375 yuan, up 1.57%; the basis of O1509 was 525 yuan, up 0.96% [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry - Bean Meal: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan, down 30 yuan, a - 1.03% decrease; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.39% decrease; the basis of M2509 was - 154 yuan, up 27.27%. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in July was 197 yuan, down 8 yuan, a - 4.1% decrease [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.38% decrease; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan, up 6 yuan, a 0.22% increase; the basis of RM2509 was - 72 yuan, down 22.22%. The crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in November was 14 yuan, down 62 yuan, a - 442.86% decrease [2]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4242 yuan, up 5 yuan, a 0.12% increase; the basis of the main soybean - one contract was - 282 yuan, down 1.77%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3690 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3686 yuan, up 29 yuan, a 0.79% increase; the basis of the main soybean - two contract was 1 yuan, down 2900.00% [2]. 3.3 Corn Industry - Corn: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Corn 2509 was 2397 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.08% decrease; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.42% increase; the basis was - 17 yuan, up 41.38%. The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 113 yuan, unchanged. The import profit was 521 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.41% decrease [3]. - Corn Starch: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2694 yuan, up 9 yuan, a 0.34% increase; the spot price in Changchun was 2720 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 26 yuan, down 25.71%. The 7 - 9 spread of corn starch was - 84 yuan, up 9.68%. The profit of Shandong starch was - 68 yuan, up 18.07% [3]. 3.4 Pig Industry - Futures Market: The main contract basis was 465 yuan, up 30 yuan, a 6.90% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2507 was 13340 yuan, up 35 yuan, a 0.26% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2509 was 13835 yuan, up 20 yuan, a 0.14% increase; the 7 - 9 spread of live hogs was 495 yuan, down 15 yuan, a - 2.94% decrease [7]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Henan was 14300 yuan, up 50 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14450 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 13850 yuan, down 100 yuan; etc. The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 146597, up 561, a 0.38% increase; the weekly white - meat price was 20.32 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease; the weekly piglet price was 27.14 yuan, down 0.9 yuan, a - 3.07% decrease; etc. [7]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - Futures Market: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Sugar 2601 was 5535 yuan, down 19 yuan, a - 0.34% decrease; the futures price of Sugar 2509 was 5679 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.21% decrease; the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.35 cents/pound, down 0.10 cents, a - 0.61% decrease; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar was - 144 yuan, down 7 yuan, a - 5.11% decrease [11]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning was 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.17% increase; the spot price in Kunming was 6040 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 361 yuan, up 22 yuan, a 6.49% increase; the Kunming basis was 186 yuan, up 12 yuan, a 6.90% increase [11]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production was 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons, an 11.63% increase; the cumulative national sugar sales were 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons, a 26.07% increase; the national industrial sugar inventory was 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons, an 8.20% decrease; etc. [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - Futures Market: The futures price of Cotton 2509 was 13540 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the futures price of Cotton 2601 was 13545 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.57 cents/pound, down 1.07 cents, a - 1.58% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread of cotton was - 5 yuan, unchanged [13]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14756 yuan, down 6 yuan, a - 0.04% decrease; the CC Index of 3128B was 14857 yuan, down 5 yuan, a - 0.03% decrease; the FC Index: M: 1% was 13604 yuan, down 87 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease [13]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 37.53 million tons, a - 9.8% decrease; the industrial inventory was 94.11 million tons, up 1.21 million tons, a 1.3% increase; the import volume was 4 million tons, down 2 million tons, a - 33.3% decrease; etc. [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry - On June 18, 2025, the futures price of the Egg 09 contract was 3691 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan, a 1.15% increase; the futures price of the Egg 07 contract was 2956 yuan/500KG, up 101 yuan, a 3.54% increase; the egg - producing area price was 2.76 yuan/jin, up 0.68%; the basis was - 839 yuan/500KG, down 55 yuan, a - 7.05% decrease; the 9 - 7 spread was 735 yuan, down 59 yuan, a - 7.43% decrease [14].