《有色》日报-20250619

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. Core Views Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation. Although the ore end provides some price support, the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable, production remains high, and demand improvement is slow. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating. The fundamental pressure remains, but the tight near - month warehouse receipts provide support. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand expectations. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore end. The demand side is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the long - term, it is advisable to short - sell on rallies, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term downward adjustment space of the futures price is limited, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the short - term price may reach around 20,500 yuan/ton, and in the third quarter, there is downward pressure, with the lowest support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate in the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. 1 imported nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The LME 0 - 3 spread remained unchanged, and the futures import profit and loss improved by 5.75% [1]. Electrowinning Cost - The cost of integrated MHP and external - procurement methods for producing electrowinning nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.36%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE, social, and LME inventories all decreased [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 11.54% [4]. Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%. The price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month. Imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85%. Social inventories increased by 2.04% [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.42 - 0.47% [6]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. Total inventory increased by 1.49%, downstream inventory decreased by 6.47%, and smelter inventory increased by 8.54% [6]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 0.11%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 20.74% [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, refined tin production decreased by 2.37%. SHEF and LME inventories changed [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%. The import profit and loss improved by 1.10% [10]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%. Galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide开工率 changed. Social and LME inventories decreased [10]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%. The average price of alumina decreased slightly [13]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41%. Aluminum product开工率 decreased, and social and LME inventories decreased [13]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%. The import profit and loss decreased [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%. Import copper concentrate index decreased, and domestic port copper concentrate inventory increased. Electrolytic copper and recycled copper制杆开工率 changed, and inventories in different locations changed [14].