白糖产业日报-20250619

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Internationally, the improved outlook and expected recovery in production of major Asian sugar - producing countries, along with increased supply from Brazil, are suppressing sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the import window and rising import pressure are weighing on sugar prices. However, approaching the summer consumption peak, the demand for inventory replenishment in the food and beverage industry and the seasonal recovery of cold - drink consumption provide some support for prices, slowing down the decline. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption boosts [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the main contract position is 384,680 lots, up 12,863 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 28,279, down 120; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 62,173 lots, down 6,170 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4446 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4468 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5647 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5676 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5855 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 6020 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 6100 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1072 million tons, up 360,100 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 7.2446 million tons, up 1.2488 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.8626 million tons, down 889,500 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 9.43 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 130,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 million tons, up 704,000 tons. The price differences between imported Brazilian/Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) are 1452 yuan/ton and 1430 yuan/ton respectively, up 45 yuan/ton; outside the quota (50% tariff), they are 251 yuan/ton and 222 yuan/ton respectively, up 54 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 3.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call/put options for sugar is 11.36%, up 2.54 and 2.59 percentage points respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of sugar are 5.57% (unchanged) and 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points respectively [2] Industry News - According to Williams, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 80 to 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased from 2.9104 million tons to 2.8539 million tons [2]