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瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250619
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-19 08:56

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead remains stable, providing some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to face downward pressure due to weakened demand. Affected by the marginal decline in national subsidy consumption, domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to show an overall oscillatory trend. As the contract is about to shift, the market will continue to consolidate. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,925 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 1,976 dollars/ton, down 30.5 dollars [2]. - The spread between the 07 - 08 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 84,572 lots, up 2,561 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,275 lots, up 722 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 44,387 tons, down 1,116 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 49,811 tons, up 1,875 tons; the LME lead inventory is 289,475 tons, up 2,025 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,775 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 33.19 dollars/ton, down 3.43 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,071 yuan, up 275 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,630 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.95%, down 16.33 percentage points; the output of recycled lead in the current month is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is 69.83 dollars/thousand tons, down 1.05 dollars; the output of primary lead in the current week is 3.48 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [2]. - The average market price of waste batteries is 10,116.07 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The export volume of batteries is 41,450 thousand pieces, down 425 thousand pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells is 1,654.65 points, down 9.14 points; the monthly automobile production is 260.4 thousand vehicles, down 44.06 thousand vehicles [2]. - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 164.7 thousand vehicles, up 7.3 thousand vehicles [2]. 3.6行业消息 - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. The dot - plot shows two interest rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expect no rate cuts this year has increased to 7, and the expected rate cut next year is reduced to 1 time [2]. - The US State Department announced that the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda reached a peace agreement [2]. - Trump reiterated that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 200 basis points, and 250 basis points would be even better [2]. - German Chancellor Merz hopes to reach an agreement on US - EU tariffs in the next few days [2]. - Putin said that the negotiation teams on the Russia - Ukraine issue are in contact, and the next meeting may be held after June 22 [2]. 3.7提示关注 - Overseas lead inventories are declining but still at a high level, while domestic inventories are starting to accumulate [2]. - The subsidy for electric vehicles has decreased, and the demand for electric vehicles has slowed down [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate remains low, which has an impact on the resumption of production of recycled lead and primary lead [2].