瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250619

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and the aquaculture season boosts demand. However, the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds supply pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the international oil price and strong external oils support the price, and it may continue a relatively strong trend in the short term. But high domestic oil - mill inventory and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9691 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2694 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 736.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5290 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 266 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 197 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 104 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 390919 lots, up 2081 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 520553 lots, up 3436 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 38797 lots, up 3682 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 24294 lots, up 6553 lots. The warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 100 pieces, unchanged; those of rapeseed meal are 25854 pieces, down 10 pieces [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9903.75 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 5415.48 yuan/ton, down 40.83 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8370 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Spreads between substitutes: The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1580 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1100 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: The global forecasted annual rapeseed production is 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons; the annual forecasted production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports and processing: The total monthly rapeseed import volume is 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 76 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan. The total weekly rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 20 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 19.09%, down 0.1% [2]. Industry Situation - Imports: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventories: The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 12.93 million tons, down 1.37 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 1.55 million tons, down 0.35 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 61 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 37.24 million tons, down 0.94 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 7.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 31.5 million tons, up 6.3 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.54 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.43 million tons, up 0.14 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4167 million yuan, down 68 million yuan [2]. Industry News - On June 18, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the weakness of CBOT soybean oil prices. The November rapeseed contract fell 3.40 Canadian dollars to settle at 736.40 Canadian dollars per ton, and the July rapeseed contract fell 6.00 Canadian dollars to settle at 738.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 15, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 70% [2].