瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250619

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On June 19, 2025, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, and the spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was 710 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal shows marginal improvement signs, with the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines rising this period, the cumulative import growth rate declining, and the cleaned coal inventory continuing to increase. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 19, 2025, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1374.0 yuan/ton, down 0.11%, and the third round of price cut for coke has been implemented. The Fed keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027. The supply of raw materials shows marginal improvement signs, and the hot metal output has declined from the high level. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 790.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J主力合约收盘价 was 1374.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. JM期货合约持仓量 was 685871.00 hands, down 14200.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 was 54570.00 hands, down 1510.00 hands. The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 40681.00 hands, up 6519.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 1688.00 hands, down 163.00 hands. The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 23.50 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 27.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 90.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 710.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 110.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 930.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan. The J主力合约基差 was 71.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the JM主力合约基差 was 189.50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 336.13 million tons, up 8.72 million tons; the cleaned coal inventory was 251.47 million tons, up 6.41 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 57.36%, down 3.23 percentage points. The raw coal output was 40328.40 million tons, up 1397.80 million tons. The import volume of coal and lignite was 3604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons. The daily average output of raw coal of 523 coking coal mines was 189.50 million tons, up 1.80 million tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 544.73 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 258.69 million tons, down 8.16 million tons. The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 798.07 million tons, down 20.85 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 125.71 million tons, down 1.30 million tons. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 773.98 million tons, up 3.07 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 642.84 million tons, down 2.96 million tons. The available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 12.32 days, up 0.06 days; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.62 days, up 0.04 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons. The output of coking coal was 3926.16 million tons, down 235.31 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, down 1.40 percentage points. The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 27.00 yuan/ton. The coke output was 4237.60 million tons, up 77.60 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points. The crude steel output was 8654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The relevant national departments responded to the news of the suspension of "national subsidies": This year, the state has arranged 300 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and a total of 162 billion yuan of funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. - The National Defense General Headquarters decided to launch a level - 4 flood control emergency response for Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Guizhou on June 18, and sent 3 working groups to key areas to assist in guiding flood relief work. - According to US Treasury data, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds in April were 757 billion US dollars, down from 765 billion US dollars in March; Japan's holdings were 1.135 trillion US dollars, up from 1.131 trillion US dollars in March. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the output of industrial raw coal above the designated size was 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. In May, the output of industrial raw coal above the designated size was 400 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, and the daily average output was 13.01 million tons. The growth rate of raw coal production has accelerated. According to customs statistics, from January to May, the national coal imports were 189 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [2].