摩根士丹利：台积电-2026 年亚太地区晶圆价格将会上涨，同时强劲的人工智能需求可能抵消外汇波动的影响，维持 “增持（OW）” 评级。

Investment Rating - The report rates TSMC as a "Top Pick" with an "Overweight" rating [4][67]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to increase global wafer prices by 3-5% on average in 2026, driven by strong AI demand, which may offset the negative impact of foreign exchange fluctuations [1][32]. - The stock has risen 31% over the past three months, but concerns remain regarding its underperformance compared to NVIDIA, which has increased by 53% in the same period [1][23]. - The report anticipates a 20% year-over-year revenue growth in 2026, with capital expenditures remaining flat at US$40 billion [2][50]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - TSMC's price target remains NT$1,288, indicating a 25% upside from the current price of NT$1,030 [4][67]. - The expected EPS for 2026 is NT$64.61, with a P/E ratio projected at 15.9 [4][67]. Financial Performance - TSMC's gross margin is expected to be between 55-56% in 2025 due to the impact of TWD appreciation, which affects margins by 40 basis points for every 1% change [2][25]. - The report revises the EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 down by 6% and 12%, respectively, due to foreign exchange impacts [2][28]. Market Dynamics - The demand for TSMC's 2nm node is projected to be strong, with capacity expected to reach 90kwpm by the end of 2026 [53][59]. - AI revenue is anticipated to grow at a mid-40% CAGR, contributing approximately 34% of TSMC's total revenue by 2027 [41][50]. Strategic Developments - TSMC is expected to benefit from Intel's outsourcing of CPU production, which could account for 33% of Intel's COGS by 2025 [64][66]. - The company is also positioned to capture demand from the Chinese AI market, contingent on regulatory approvals for shipping AI GPUs [41][50].