摩根士丹利：哪些行业在推动特朗普2.0关税政策的价格变动？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the market has become overly negative on US Industrials' ability to maintain price and cost positivity in light of Trump 2.0 tariffs, a view that has gained acceptance [3][9]. - There is a positive outlook for Q2 EPS, with the group better positioned to defend margins rather than just operating profit, supported by an excess inventory buffer [3][9]. - The report identifies that US Industrial pricing power is an underappreciated driver of operational durability, which is expected to manifest in upcoming quarters [9]. Summary by Sections Price Changes and Tariffs - The report tracks cumulative changes in the Producer Price Index (PPI) over the last three months, indicating a growth of 90 basis points, outpacing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 40 basis points [8]. - The verticals that are realizing the strongest price increases due to Trump 2.0 tariffs include Switchgear, Valves, Electrical Equipment, and Non-Residential Light Fixtures, particularly those exposed to metal inputs and Chinese imports [8]. Margin Defense and EPS Growth - The report suggests that corporations are reluctant to roll back prices due to uncertainty around future policy, indicating that prices are likely to increase further into Q3 [7]. - The report highlights that not a single vertical has given back price since the end of 2022, despite commodity deflation and broad channel destocking [11]. Historical Performance and Future Outlook - The report notes that since 2018, the coverage has grown operating profit at 1.7 times the rate of sales, indicating strong pricing power [11]. - The best-positioned companies to convert inflation into profits include ETN, AYI, FAST, GWW, HUBB, WSO, and TT [9].