摩根大通：全球大宗商品周评

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for oil prices in the low to mid $60s for the remainder of 2025 and $60 in 2026, despite geopolitical concerns [6][10]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have increased due to Israel's attack on Iran, raising the worst-case scenario probability for oil supply disruptions to 17% [3][4]. - The recent spike in oil prices by 5% reflects heightened security risks in the Middle East, with a 7% probability of a worst-case scenario where supply impacts extend beyond Iranian exports [6][10]. - The US aluminum tariffs have created significant uncertainty in the aluminum market, with the US Midwest premium (MWP) currently insufficient to incentivize necessary imports [7][10]. Oil Market Summary - Global oil demand averaged 103.9 million barrels per day (mbd) in June, showing a year-over-year increase of 560 thousand barrels per day (kbd) [10]. - Total liquid inventories surged by 34 million barrels (mb) in the first week of June, with crude oil stocks rising by 27 mb [10]. - An attack on Iran could potentially spike oil prices to $120, impacting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 5% [6]. Aluminum Market Summary - The surprise increase in US aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to a sideways outlook on aluminum prices, with participants at the Harbor Aluminum Summit expressing uncertainty about future demand [7][10]. - The current MWP is around 60 cents per pound, which barely covers the tariff, indicating a need for the MWP to rise if the tariff remains unchanged [10]. - Existing inventory can buffer the market temporarily, but it will deplete quickly, leading to potential price increases if the tariff situation does not change [10]. Metals Activity Summary - China's steel output has slowed sharply, reaching its lowest rate since 2018, with a 5% drop compared to previous months [9]. - The annualized run-rate of steel production in China is at 967 million tons (Mt), suggesting a potential peak in production for 2025 [9].