铁矿石早报（2025-6-20）-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with port inventories increasing. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade tensions are easing. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrivals this month will remain at a relatively high level, leading to a loose overall supply - demand situation and an increase in port inventories. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade tensions are easing, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 789, with a basis of 91; the spot price of Brazilian coarse ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 764, with a basis of 66. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, presenting a bullish outlook [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventories are 14,503.14 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral outlook [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and short positions are increasing, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.6 Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing, and imports are increasing. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3.7 Factors Analysis - Positive Factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, and import losses [5]. - Negative Factors: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [5].