大越期货纯碱早报-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. - The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually recovering, supply has rebounded to a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants has declined but is still at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,215 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,176 yuan/ton, the basis is 39 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 2.40% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Leveraging factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Inhibiting factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period; the cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - End Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,215 yuan/ton | 45 yuan/ton | | Current value | 1,176 yuan/ton | 1,215 yuan/ton | 39 yuan/ton | | Change rate | 0.51% | 0.00% | - 13.33% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,215 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 41.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 43.30 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 740,100 tons, of which the output of heavy - quality soda ash is 405,800 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale increase in soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025 (with an actual planned production of 1 million tons) [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.04% [23]. - Float glass: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 155,700 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [26]. - Photovoltaic glass: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [29]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy - quality soda ash is 914,100 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has changed. In some years, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. The production capacity, output, import, export, and other indicators have also changed accordingly [33].