Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With production profit at a low level, industry cold repairs increasing, and开工率 and产量 dropping to historical lows. However, terminal demand is weak, leading to continuous accumulation of factory inventories. It is expected that the glass will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased from 980 yuan/ton to 998 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.84%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass increased from 1044 yuan/ton to 1052 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.77%. The main basis decreased from 64 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton, a decline of 15.63% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1052 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The profitability of coal production lines has recovered, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profits of petroleum coke production lines have turned negative [19]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with an operating rate of 75.57%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [23][25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [4][29]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.887 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.29% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the surplus is 1.51 million tons [45]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period. With the arrival of the seasonal off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed, and the glass factory inventory continues to accumulate. It is expected that the glass will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [5].
大越期货玻璃早报-20250620
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-20 01:33