大越期货股指期货早报-20250620

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The IC2507 has a discount of 59.43 points, and the IM2507 has a discount of 77.02 points, indicating a bearish signal [3]. - In terms of the market trend, IM > IC > IF > IH (main contracts). IM, IC, and IF are above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign, while IH is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish outlook [3][4]. - For treasury bond futures, the uncertainty of the Israel - Iran situation, consecutive declines in the Hong Kong and A - share small - cap indexes, and a decrease in market hotspots are bearish factors. The margin trading balance increased by 1.4 billion yuan to 1.8167 trillion yuan, which is neutral. The discounts of IH2507 and IF2507 are also neutral [5]. - The main positions of IH and IC show a reduction in long positions, while IF shows an increase in long positions, overall presenting a bullish tendency. Due to concerns about US intervention, increased uncertainty in the Israel - Iran situation, limited positive effects from the Lujiazui Forum, a rebound in crude oil prices, and global stock market adjustments, the domestic index faces increased upward pressure and is expected to undergo a weak adjustment [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Index Futures Quotes: The report provides detailed quotes of various index futures including IH, IF, IC, and IM, such as contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividends, spreads, discount ratios, annualized discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining maturities [7]. - Index Futures Basis and Spreads: It presents the historical basis and spreads of the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 500 index futures, helping to analyze the price relationships between different contracts [9][12]. 3.2 Spot Market - Important Index Daily Returns: The daily returns of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, etc., are shown, reflecting the overall performance of the spot market [15][16]. - Style Index Daily Returns: The daily returns of style indexes including cyclical, non - cyclical, low - P/E, large - cap, small - cap, etc., are provided, which can be used to analyze the performance of different market styles [18][19][21]. - Sector Index Daily Returns: The daily returns of various sector indexes in the Shenwan classification are presented, such as agriculture, basic chemicals, steel, etc., helping to understand the performance of different industries [22]. 3.3 Market Structure - AH Share Premium: The historical data of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is provided, which is useful for analyzing the price differences between A - shares and H - shares [24][25][26]. - Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE) and Price - to - Book Ratio (PB): The historical P/E and P/B ratios of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented, which can be used to evaluate the valuation levels of different indexes [27][29]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals - Stock Market Fund Inflows: The historical data of A - share fund net inflows and the CSI 300 index are shown, reflecting the fund flow situation in the stock market [31][32]. - Margin Trading Balance: The historical data of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index are provided, which can be used to analyze the leverage situation in the market [33][34]. - Northbound Capital Inflows: The historical data of northbound capital net inflows are presented, showing the flow of foreign funds into the A - share market [35][36]. - Fund Costs: The historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates are provided, reflecting the short - term fund costs in the market [41][42]. 3.5 Market Sentiment - Trading Activity: The historical turnover rates of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented, which can be used to analyze the trading activity in the market [44][47][49]. - Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions: The historical data of public - offering hybrid fund positions are provided, which can reflect the market sentiment of institutional investors [50]. 3.6 Other Market Indicators - Dividend Yield and Treasury Bond Yield: The historical data of index futures dividend yields and the 10 - year treasury bond yield are presented, which can be used to compare the investment returns of different assets [53][54]. - Exchange Rate: The historical data of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan exchange rate are provided, which can be used to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the market [55][56]. - New Account Openings and Index Tracking: The relationship between new account openings and the Shanghai Composite Index is tracked, which can reflect the participation enthusiasm of retail investors [57]. - Newly Established Fund Sizes: The changes in the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are presented, which can reflect the fund - raising situation in the market [59][61][63].