棉花早报-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton present a neutral situation. The 25/26 annual output, consumption, and inventory data from different organizations show a balanced supply - demand relationship. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) 6 - month report indicates a production of 2547.2 million tons, consumption of 2563.8 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1672.1 million tons. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) 6 - month report shows a production of 2600 million tons and consumption of 2570 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture in May for the 25/26 year estimates a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 853 million tons [5]. - In terms of basis, the spot 3128b national average price is 14,891, with a basis of 1366 (09 contract), showing a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [5]. - Regarding inventory, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's May 25/26 annual forecast of ending inventory of 853 million tons is a bearish factor [5]. - On the disk, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - In terms of expectations, the Sino - US negotiations have not brought specific benefits to the textile industry. The textile industry has entered the off - season of consumption. The 09 main contract faces significant resistance around 13,600, and it is expected to consolidate horizontally in the short - term within the range of 13,400 - 13,600 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple reports from different institutions show the supply - demand situation of cotton in the 25/26 year. Customs data shows that in May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 10 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. - Basis: The spot 3128b national average price is 14,891, with a basis of 1366 (09 contract), indicating a premium to the futures [5]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's May 25/26 annual forecast of ending inventory is 853 million tons [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing [5]. - Expectations: Sino - US negotiations have no specific benefits for the textile industry. The textile industry is in the off - season, and the 09 main contract will consolidate horizontally in the short - term within the 13,400 - 13,600 range [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Production and Consumption Data: The USDA's 6 - month report on global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 year shows detailed data for different countries and regions. The total production is 2547.2 million tons, and the total consumption is 2563.8 million tons. The ICAC's 6 - month report shows a production of 2600 million tons and consumption of 2570 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's May 25/26 year data for China shows a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 853 million tons [5][10]. - Import and Export Data: In May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 10 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5].